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Sea Elevation Potentials
- short version

According to NASA during the last 100 years the sea elevation was 17 cm. However, measuring the same thing during just the last 10 myears we get indications taht sea elevation has doubled. So we expect now an exponential increase in sea elevation based om what we all saw in Copenhagen Dec 2009 at COP15.

IPCC says they can´t make any prognoses on sea elevation based on what they see now.

It may even be a 6 m elevation within 100 years.

Annual Sea Elevation from global ice melting is currently ~3mm/year

In a "linear world" this corresponds to only 30 cm in a century based on

2,30 mm/year from Antarctica (NASA, 2009)

0,46 mm/year from Greenland (NASA, 2009)

2,80 mm/year total global sea level increase,

thus sea elevation is currently 3 mm/year

but now apparently quickly accelerating - we regret to say

(PAC calculation based on source data from NASA(Antarctic dated 2009-11-24; Arctic))

There is no linearity in ice melting on a planet that has currently no systemic sustainable governance at all when it comes to continued  global outlets of fossil C into the atmosphere. Within 3 decades the icemelting may be 10 fold higher than in 2010 in a "business as usual world" as they call it on Hadley Metoffice. Then we can extrapolate the collapse of the banking system within just a few decades when the coastal exclusive properties around the planet can´t be sold further any longer due to higher and higher sea elevation.

The sea elevation speed can easily be perhaps 10 times bigger already within 30 years !

The final potential sea elevation in case of a total global ice melting is 80,44 m tells us Williams & Ferrigno at US Geological Survey in 2002. The "road" to or from this final sea level is currently 100% determined by humanity individ for individ.

Project AgroChallenge has currently from 2010 the most dedicated and distinct asserted program to stop this cataclysmic scenarios now clearly approaching if You just click us and pay us.

Above: A symbolic beautiful 100% sun driven sea wave - with a volume of perhaps 100 m3 - suddenly arising at the coast of Puerto Cruz, Tenerife 2009-01-03.  Photo & copyright: Rune Ekman, AgroChall. But You are free to use it as long as You tell the source www.agrochall.gl in immediate connection with the used picture. This sea wave is 100% caused by the sun and just about 2 m high on a comparatively blanc sea. 
 

Threatened Lowland Zone Example: Copenhagen - Malmoe region - everything on the map is below 6 m above sea level.
Courtesy: http://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/images/oresund-bridge.jpg

We regret to say it is currently not very probable this area can still be inhabited in 2200 - 2300 with the attitudes being observed in UN COP15 meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009. The political solutions will arrive too late for physics. The following centuries 98% of Denmark seems to be a lost land to the sea if Project AgroChallenge is not fully accepted by the market within about 10 years and get started at an adequate level of C sequestering.

The global total ice volumes are continously measured by several height sensing satellites ruled by NASA & ESA. It is a big job to measure the global ice volume and to make the integrations. This has been done in computerised form by  Williams & Ferrigno at US Geological Survey, 2003.

To calculate the sea elevation is then simple for each student if You know that the average radius of Planeth Earth is 6370 km.

You must also compensate for that current land area is 29% and thus sea area 71% of the surface of the planet at current sea level. You must also compensate for that the density of ice is lower than the density of water - as is done below.

The "extremely slow stealthing global super wave" mankind is now inducing and approaching if we pass 2°C above normal global temperature will reach an ultimate "stealth height" of 80,44 m  along the current global coastal line - which of course is a totally unrealistic assumption.

The water elevation no approaching the planet seems to approach the planet with a "speed of" 2 - 6 m within perhaps five decades. It is currently impossible to prognosticate by the climatologists simply because no one can say today how many Gt C mankind intend to combust of fossil origin  and with the final levels perhaps a couple of centuries later depgnosticate dendent on what mankind now collectively decide - or not decide.

we do now based on further information help from e g NASA satellites and scientific compilations within several disciplines made by hundreds of thousands of scientists positioned around the world. Much of the future dynamic of global warming is still in the hand of humanity, but not many years more if it should be adequately counter balanced before it is too late.

Abstract

During this century it is estimated by different groups - and highly dependent on future antropogenic behaviors - that the sea level may elevate 2 - 6 m. This will cause a tremendous economic catastrophy for mankind from several aspects if we continue to behave like in a "business as usual world".

The ultimate sea elevation potential in case of a total polar ice melting is currently 80,44 m (Williams & Ferrigno, 2002). About 10 - 15% of the 16,7 Gha land area on the planet will be flooded by the sea. Naturally 100% of all coastal cities has to be abandoned quite soon of sanitary reasons. Even many continental cities positioned frequently very far from the sea shore will be flooded. In EU for instance Berlin, Paris, Rome, Warzow etc etc will be flooded. Currently ~70% of mankind lives within the potentially flooded area. The most fertile soil is also positioned here. As we all know, people love to live close to the sea and pay extra for properties positioned close to the sea globally. Thus within the ultimately flooded area - at least in many regions about 70% of the human urban population is today living. Within this flooded region also the most fertile agricultural land is positioned.

The ice volume of Greenland corresponds to 6 m sea elevation globally in melted form. The rest comes from the Antarctic continent. Only 4% of all global ice comes from other high land glaciers now quickly melting globally.

The final sea level during a human "business as usual"-induced heat shock may even be reached already within perhaps 200 years in a polar world 20(on average) and 40 °C(periodically)  warmer than today in the polar region according to meteorologists from e g Hadle Met Center, UK. Not only coastal cities around the world but also continental cities far from the coast will be "drowned" by the new sea level. Within EU e g Berlin, Paris (we can´t name them all here) will be fluded. If we don´t act adequately the biggest threat against our current global economy will, however, come already within a few decades ( perhaps 2 - 4 decades ahead based on Your and 7 psychological market effects on the monetary & banking system - now determined by the human collectice behaviour) when sea level have started to rise just around 2 m and many coastal properties around the world will be threatened by decreasing prices and in a longer term impossibel to sell by the last owner. In case "Project AgroChall" don´t get started in time this will cause a monetary and banking crisis affecting every singla human being on the planet. This will also be a deep threat to the forms of democracy and UN human rights most of us believe in today. Below is shown two ways to calculate the sea elevation at risk.

Introduction

On one occation several hundred million years ago it seems that the whole planet was covered by ice, thus looking like a snowball from the space. So sea level can´t always be regarded as a fixed level or a "constant" on planet Earth.

During the last Ice Age the maximum extent of glaciation was around 16,000 B.C. At that time large ice sheets covered all of Canada, much of the American midwest and northeast, all of Scandinavia and some surrounding regions of Eurasia. The total volume of ice then was perhaps 8mammoth sceletons and teeths are f0,000,000 Gt or square kilometers, or between two and three times as much as today. Correspondingly, world sea level was 16 000 years about 127 meters lower than today (Nature, Jan 2008).  It is also the explanation behind why the mammuth heards had high populations on a tundra area that today is called the North Sea and today is positioned about 30 m below see level between UK, Norway and Denmark - an area where many mammut sceletons and teeths have been found in the bottom. Times are changing. 

Today about 71% of the planet surface is currently covered by water. The average deep in the sea is around 3 000 m.

Currently about 2% of the total global water is present on the planet in forms of ice on altitudes or on latitudes mostly having - or earlier had - annual mean temperatures usually considerably lower than 0°C for many hundred or thousands of years.

98% of all ice is currently positioned on land and 2% floating on the sea. When the land fraction of ice melts it give rice to a sea elevation. When floating ice on the sea melts down it doesn´t add a mm to increased sea level according to the Archimedes principle.

About 9% of the land based ice today is positioned on Greenland part of the "Arctic" ("The North Pole" area). About 87% of the global ice volume on land is positioned on the Antarctic (- the South Pole area - which principally is a continent with the same form as the ice cover seen from the space.

Around 3 - 4% of global ice is positioned on high altitude areas around the world, now quickly melting. These non polar glaciers are today the real "global quick melters"  in e g the South American Andes, the Asian Himalayas and the African - close to equator positioned - Kilimanjaro. Among this cathegory of glaciers it appears there is not a single one among 160 000 known glaciers that has increased in size the last hundred years.

When the Himalayan glaciers have melted down totally there will be much more variation in the rivers during the year, with perhaps long drought periods that will devastate cultivation conditions in Asia without desalination of sea water unless the monsoun rains will not increase in the region - which is possible in a way that however will increase soil erosion considerably in the region.

The Greenland ice now quickly melting - perhaps within 30 years according to certain estimates made - corresponds in melted form to a sea elevation of 6 m.

So in a global warming world it is currently quite apparent that there will be less room for global ice and glaciers on thje planet.

The ice cover on planet Earth has been measured by satellites daily since ~30 years through radar or laser altimetry. So the total ice volume and its changes is comparatively well known and calculated with a precision of perhaps ±5%.

The total global ice volume today is regarded to be around  30 000 Gton of melted water.

A first simple estimation - based on a rough calculation - on the total sea elevation potential by a total global ice melting correlated with a global heat shock now induced by fossil C burning on the planet Earth can be done like this:

The sea level elevation by a complete global ice melting along the current coastal line in connection with a global heat shock will be of the size 80,4  m.

When and/or if it happens depend currently on the level of fully stoechiometrical based human desicions and if they are done before it is too late or after and how "tasty" a global CO2 reset can be designed commercially.

Remember that this time the dynamic of the approaching heat shock is induced by an irrational behaviour by mankind - fossil C burning critisized by scientists since 120 years, so the dynamics may get an accelerated exponential dynamics speed never seen before in the planet evolution.

Further details will be given by the conference participants in Sept 2010.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/VisionsClouds/

https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/

Mount Ararat
Courtesy: NASA at http://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/images/ararat-vw.jpg

Mount Ararat is located in extreme northeast Turkey, close to the border of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Iran. Ararat consists of two volcanic peaks: Big Ararat (5137 m) and Little Ararat (3,914m). The top of Big Ararat is covered with snow all year long. The Old Testament story of Noah says that Noah’s ark came to rest on Ararat following the Great Flood. However, in case of a total global ice melting the sea elevation can never be higher than 80,44 m above current sea level and calculated as if the water kept itself behind the current global coastal line. This image is a satellite seen 3-D perspective view looking from the southwest, created by draping a simulated natural color image over an ASTER-derived digital topography model. The image was acquired on 25 June 2002, and is located at 39.75 degrees North latitude, 44.4 degrees East longitude.