This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Source: NOAA.) Compilation & credit: NASA
Background Photo Courtesy:
NASA
Project AgroChallenge
Global Warming Reasons
CO2
Below NASA points on evolutionary now quickly increasing CO2 as a result of antropogenic activities behind now observed global warming dynamics.
This graph, based on the
comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct
measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased
since the Industrial Revolution. (Source: NOAA.) Compilation
& credit:
NASA
- When will we reach +4°C warmer ? - Click: The Hadley Center Metoffice answer in December 2009.
In November 2009 26 of the most qualified professors in the world made their mutual compilation of the consequences of global warming within 90 years. You can get the 64 page report here.
Their Executive Summary contains the following points - they say:
...just 20 years more of emission at current level would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C.
...the sea level will raise 1 - 2 m till 2100.
...the chance for tipping points.
...the active turning point from humanity must come soon.
...global emissions need to peak 2015 - 2020 and then decline rapidly if a global cataclysm is to be avoided for mankind and all biodiversity on the planet.
... individual outlets of fossil C must be scrinken to 5 - 20% of current consumption till 2050 otherwise they say the planet will reach the point behind no return for many thousands of yeaar.
but the full story is given here
Last report from
World Meteorological Organization
World Temperature Development since 1850. Credit & compilation by NASA.
World Temperature Development since 1850. Credit & compilation by WMO
- Could it be the Sun instead causing a global warming ?
The first "candidate" that has to be checked which has a big potential to cause global warming on Tellus is of natural reasons the Sun. The Sun delivers globally an effect about 15 000 times higher than the human consumption (=energy/time unit second or year). Principally every little wind and wave on Tellus originates from the Sun. The so called solar constant has a value of 1,36 kW/m2 reaching Tellus on the illiminated half of Tellus night and day, but the fourth figure can vary to some extent as is shown below. This is a too small variation to explain currently observed global warming as will be further specified below.
So it turns out that the Sun delivers its energy with extremely little variation with time as is shown below. The incident sun energy effect is therefore extremely stable. The third decimal in the solar constant has however varied the last five hundred years from a value 3 to 6. Below we go further into this which is roughly 2 ‰. During the last 100 years the variation is, however, just half that value and during the last 30 years the luminiscence from the Sun can´t explain the global warming at all according to most scientists.
- Let us look into this further !
Below is shown a compilation of the very low variability in the Sun incidence on planet Earth made by Judith Lean at Naval Resources Lab, USA and is published by NASA. Perhaps it looks like big variation, but looking at the scale to the left it is apparent the sun is a very stable star when it comes to energy delivery. The diagram is showing the variability in sun incidence during the period 1500 - 2000. The interval is however extremely small.
By Lean´s way of measuring there is however a small and significant increase in the sun incidence at Tellus outside the atmosphere from 1363.6 W/m2 in the year 1500 to 1366.4 W/m2 in the year 2 000. Expressed in promille(‰) this increase corresponds to 2,05 ‰ (= 2 promille) during the last 500 years. If we assume the average temperature on Tellus to be still 17
°C (= 290 K) the increased sun incidence can explain a long term temperature increase of ~0,58 °C we should expect during the last 500 years from 1500 till 2000.If we instead look at the temperature increase since 1850 - when man started to use fossil fuels in a more deliberate way for diferent purposes - up till 2000 the increase in sun incidence has gone from 1365.0 to 1366.0 which is an increase with 0.88 ‰. The increased sun incidence will therfore explain an increase in temperature since 1850 till 2000 caused by the the Sun of ~0.25 °C.
The last 30 years however the Sun variation has been considerably lower as is illustrated at Wikipedia below.
Courtesy:
Wikipedia
Above is seen that tha last 30 years the Sun incidence outside the amosphere has varied just about ~1 W/m2 which is 1/1366 or ~0,7 ‰.
As is also seen in the diagram above the Sun activity has been lowering in its normal 11 year sinusoidal mode since 2002.
The warmest years during the 2000:nds rated by NASA below can therefore hardly be explained by an increased Sun irradiance during the period it has been observed.
The global warming in 2009 is according to NASA 2009 0,72
°C (=1,3°F for non SI-system accepting nations).An excellent high resolution compilation including the most probable parameters behind global warming is shown below and is made by "Union of Concerned Scientists" at
From here is seen that after the 1940:ies the current activity from the Sun can hardly explain anything of the currently and lately observed global warming tendencypublished by e g NASA.
Foukal, Frölich, Spruit & Wigley (Nature 14 Sept 2006) "The variation measured from spacecraft since 1978 are too small to have contributed appreciably to accelerated global warming over the past 30 years."
The global warming has a value currently of 0,72 °C in 2009.
According to NASA Global Warming many experts expect the global temperature to raise 1,4 - 5,8°C by 2100.
Union of Concerned Scientists have another explanation:
Courtesy:
Union of Concerned Scientists
According to http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/download/ with 25 of the most respected climate research professors in the world an added effect is also that the sea level will raise 1 - 2 m before 2100.
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2010-01-07 AgroChall/Bionic Rune Ekman Copyright & All rights reserved.